Friday, March 11, 2005

....The Future Of Telecommunications May Look Very Different....

The current "frenzy" over VoIP seems to focused mostly on BroadBand phones and their predicted replacement of landline phone calls as we know it.

But that's just the obvious action on the surface.

VoIP technology is & can be much more than that. And company R&D is gearing up in unprecedented ways to prepare for that surprising leap in expectation.

Notice I said expectation.

Seems the old business model in Telco was that whatever the companies came up with is what the consumer would take.

The companies drove the market & what was in it...including any technology "advancements" and their application, distribution, etc.

Remember.....we had dial-up internet....then DSL, cable, & satellite access. Now WiFi & soon reliable WiMax deployment.

We had high cpm PSTN / POTS residential phone calls....then we had bundled local/LD.... then flat rate LD. Now Broadband phone (VoIP).

We had bulky analog cell phones then digital/PCS, text messaging, and now sleek video cellular.

But that is old world thinking.

The reason is 2 fold....

First....VoIP technology (note I didn't say VoIP "phone") stands to afford unprecedented advancements and capabilities yet to be seen. The potential is boggling.

Second....the old business model was that whatever companies came up with consumers would accept. The companies drove what was available & came to market.

No consumers are dictating to companies "we want this now come up with it".

That's a drastic change in thinking that companies must now deal with. Those that do will be better positioned to capture what markets are created by consumer demand...vice the old approach of markets being created by what companies developed and released. And the foundation of this new consumer driven demand will likely be based on VoIP (and I believe wireless) technology.

That aside, I'd really like to see what ya'll think of this shift in product development and market control to consumer "vision" vice company "idea" driven....fueled by the possibilities surrounding VoIP and wireless. We've seen....or soon will....a host of Gee Whiz break throughs & possibilities focused heavily on multi-media & data (both residential & business). What do you think the future holds?


Blogger JD said...


This is an excellent posting.

You're right. I think we've seen the tipping point from where telecom companies were in the driver's seat to now where the user can select from a wide range of products and services.

As bandwidth availability and usage increases, I think we'll see much more happening as we get additional services to our homes and offices through "big pipes."

Some of these are already being used by some people, such as video on demand (VOD), which is much easier than even Netflix.

With RSS 2.0, the ability to include just about any type of enclosure makes it possible to subscribe to a feed that delivers large multimedia items while you're sleeping so they'll be available when you need them the next day. All it takes is a dedicated high-speed connection and it opens a whole new world of features to us.

Just a few years ago, it cost thousands of dollars a month for a t1 line, and now they are available for much less.

Folks who live in cities will benefit from this more than some of us rural dwellers. I could get wireless DSL now, but I'd have to dig a tunnel through the mountain that's between me and the tower, so I'm still stuck with dial-up.

(But, I'm happy for the trade-off since I love living up here in the mountains.)

Three miles from my home, I'd have the option of wired DSL, wireless DSL, and cable modem -- but that three miles may as well be a thousand.

We're seeing broadband penetration primarily in the large cities of the northeast with other parts of the country lagging (I think that's what I read recently). But the real issue -- at least for some of us -- is the last mile (or the last three miles).

The large telcos will do what they can to retain their monopolies on the wire into the home or office.

What do you think is going to happen along those lines for people who are not urban or suburban dwellers?

Again, excellent posting, and thought provoking.

All the best,


I succeed by helping you succeed.

4:32 PM  

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